India’s historical dominance in South Asia, driven by its military and economic superiority, has been significantly challenged by Pakistan’s robust nuclear and conventional deterrence. The events of May 2025, including India’s failed missile strikes and Pakistan’s decisive retaliation in Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos, underscore this shift. This paper analyzes the evolving power dynamics through offensive realism, deterrence theory, and balance of power, incorporating the latest developments.
Theoretical Framework
1. Offensive Realism (Mearsheimer) & India’s Failed Hegemony
John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism posits that states seek regional hegemony to maximize security. India, despite its size and military investments, has failed to establish unchecked dominance due to Pakistan’s asymmetric deterrence and strategic alliances (e.g., China, Turkey).
- May 2025 Escalation: India’s missile strikes on PAF bases (Nur Khan, Murid, Rafiqui) were neutralized by Pakistan’s air defenses, exposing India’s inability to achieve strategic objectives.
2. Deterrence Theory & Pakistan’s Second-Strike Capability
Pakistan’s Nasr (tactical nukes), Babur cruise missiles, and Shaheen-III ensure Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). The 2025 crisis confirmed this:
- India’s Aggression: Targeted Pakistani civilians (e.g., martyrdom of 7-year-old Irtaza Abbas Turi in AJK) and used Israeli Herop drones (25 destroyed by Pakistan).
- Pakistan’s Retaliation: Precision strikes on Brahmos missile storage (Beas), Adampur S-400 system ($1.5B destroyed), Udhampur airbase, and Pathankot airfield.
3. Balance of Power (Waltz) & Pakistan’s Strategic Alliances
Kenneth Waltz’s theory explains how weaker states counter hegemony. Pakistan’s partnerships with China (CPEC, JF-17s), Turkey (Bayraktar TB2 drones), and Iran (security cooperation) have balanced India’s conventional edge.
Case Studies & Latest Evidence (May 2025)
Case Study 1: Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos (May 2025)
- India’s Failed Strikes:
- 3:30 AM, May 10: Indian missiles target PAF bases; 90% intercepted.
- Electronic Signatures: Pakistan traced missiles to origins, proving India’s aggression.
- Pakistan’s Response:
- 4:38 AM: Retaliatory strikes on Brahmos depots, Adampur S-400.
- Cyber Warfare: Hacked 2,500+ Indian cameras, BJP/BSF websites, IAF data leaks.
Case Study 2: Balakot 2.0 (2019 vs. 2025)
- 2019: India’s Balakot strike met with Operation Swift Retort (JF-17s downed MiG-21).
- 2025: India repeats failure; PAF’s hypersonic missiles obliterate S-400 systems.
Case Study 3: Economic Costs of Indian Aggression
- Daily War Cost: 670M∗∗(mobilization)to∗∗670M∗∗(mobilization)to∗∗17.8B GDP loss (4-week conflict).
- Capital Flight: $10–15B FDI outflows projected (Moody’s Analytics).
- Tourism Drop: 20% decline threatens $30B industry.
Pakistan’s Deterrence Capabilities (2025 Update)
- Nuclear Arsenal: 175–200 warheads (SIPRI 2025), Nasr-II (enhanced range).
- Missile Tech: FATAH-2 (120km, hyper-accurate), Shaheen-III (2,750km).
- Conventional Edge:
- JF-17 Block III (AESA radar + PL-15) > India’s Rafale.
- Turkish Drones (Bayraktar TB2) dominate LoC.
Conclusion: India’s Hegemony in Crisis
- Military Failure: India’s May 2025 strikes achieved zero strategic gains.
- Economic Fallout: War risks derailing India’s $5T economy dream.
- Diplomatic Isolation: Unprovoked attacks on AJK civilians drew global condemnation.
Pakistan’s deterrence triad (nuclear, conventional, cyber) has enforced a stable, multipolar South Asia, ending India’s hegemony.
Sources:
- ISPR Releases (May 2025) – Missile intercepts, martyrdom data.
- Dawn, PTV (May 10, 2025) – Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos details.
- SIPRI 2025 – Nuclear stockpiles.
- Moody’s Analytics – Economic cost projections.
Final Assessment: India’s aggression has backfired, proving Pakistan’s deterrence is unbreakable. The era of Indian hegemony is over.
